我为04北京总规的实施效果说句公道话

(欢迎拍砖版,也求被拍醒)

每个大城市的规划总是容易让人诟病,本人学艺不深,值此“北京城市总体规划(2004-2010年)”(简称“04北京总规”)修改之际,愿意仅从规划城镇建设用地的空间布局(简称“规划布局”)的实施效果角度,为04北京总规说句公道话,注意这里关注的是规划空间布局的实施效果,不是规划空间布局本身的科学性、合理性问题,也不关注人口承载力等其他问题。规划布局的科学合理性,不是本文探讨的对象,虽然我们也有研究对其进行研究。

再次声明,虽然本文多数论据来自已经发表或者在研究的成果,但此短文不是所有内容都经过严谨推导,也仅代表个人观点,与所在单位及BCL成员的所在组织无关。

 

1 规划空间布局与最新夜间影像基本一致

 

 

下面两图左为04北京总规规划布局,右为2014年最新的NASA夜间影像,基本为同一比例尺同一范围,像与不像各位自行判断。总体上夜间有灯光的地方多为规划布局内(当然也能看到一定比例的规划布局没有被开发)。当然一个可能的反方观点是,规划布局作为官方军团,基础设施条件好,夜间自然就更亮,而非正式开发则基础设施有限,自然夜间的道路照明、建筑照明和交通灯光处于弱势。

 

 

2 绝大多数人类活动位于规划布局内。

 

         采用多种反映人类活动的数据对规划布局进行评估,即便用保守的组团边界,发现97%的签到次数位于规划布局内,95%的公交车轨迹的OD两端都位于规划布局内,97%的出租车轨迹的OD两端(一次上下客)都位于规划布局内。更深入和更多维度的讨论待论文发表后再拿出来讨论。我们也承认上述三种数据都有偏,但总体趋势还是能体现出来的。期待日后能够用手机数据来继续验证。

(下图表示基于公交刷卡数据的各个规划布局要素的联系,不表示合法与非正式人流)

 

 

3 实施效果超过历次其他北京总规

 

         北京自调整为目前16410平方公里的市域边界以来,共编制过五版总规,19581973198219922004版。在Long(2012)研究中,我们将规划实施之后下次总规修编之前的城市布局与规划布局进行了对比,2004版总规的合法开发率最高(具体数字见论文)。将规划等制度性因素和其他市场性因素放在一起看各个因素在城市扩张中的作用(每版总规分别进行分析,放在其实施的历史阶段中去看),我们也发现04版总规对实际开发的引导作用最强(见下图的g_pln)。

 

Long Y, Gu Y, Han H, 2012, “Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of urban planning implementation effectiveness: Evidence from five master plans of Beijing” Landscape and Urban Planning 108: 103-111

 

注:我们也注意到1973和1982版总规因为特定历史时期,没有实施或者实施效果有限。

 

4 新城开发边界的控制成效显著

 

         通过一系列的计量经济学方法,北京新城的规划边界在04总规之后的开发中起到了显著性的作用,即边界内外被开发的概率差距明显,正在研究,不便多说。

 

4+ 求支援

 

         规划,不再是“纸上画画,墙上挂挂”。

 

Write a comment

Comments: 29
  • #1

    吴志峰 (Wednesday, 12 February 2014 04:14)

    1)随着空间信息技术发展,行政力量对规划的实施与监管能力在增强。
    2)“规划”中,发展战略规划中看不中用,领导一换,思路就变;城市规划“一枝独秀”,相对其它规划刚性凸显;土地利用规划作用在逐步增强,但是各种形式的调规将其“小三”地位原形毕露;“三规合一”还只是个梦想;其它诸如生态规划、环保规划之类,几乎等同搽屁股纸,用一次就扔。
    3)城市边界(urban fringe)何在?有形的无形的,显性的隐性的,边界屡被突破,是否有“增长的极限”?
    4)城市扩张不应只是考察二维的平面扩张,向空中增高和地下延伸,也是城市扩张在垂直维度的表现。

  • #2

    Ying Long (Wednesday, 12 February 2014 08:52)

    多谢吴老师点评

  • #3

    feeling_99 (Wednesday, 12 February 2014 15:51)

    砖先不拍,疑问如下
    1:你为什么要替04北京总规说句公道话?你的目标是什么?“规划空间布局的实施效果”是你个人意愿的强调,还是04北京总规要实现的明确目标?
    2:你认为城市规划的目标是什么?能明确,清楚的说清楚吗?
    3:你怎么知道你的研究,是科学的,客观的,理性的?你的研究,仅仅是为了4+,最后的观点?规划,不再是墙上挂挂,纸上画画?请问,你为什么做这个研究?你做研究的目的和目标是什么?

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